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Analysis of NIST's Cybersecurity Framework's Approach to Cyber Threats

The NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 claims to provide "guidance to industry, government agencies, and other organizations to manage cybersecurity risks." However, an analysis of the framework and its supporting documents reveals several significant gaps in how it addresses cyber threats specifically.

NIST's general threat definition from SP 800-30 states that a threat is "Any circumstance or event with the potential to adversely impact organizational operations and assets, individuals, other organizations, or the Nation through an information system via unauthorized access, destruction, disclosure, or modification of information, and/or denial of service." While this definition mentions information systems, it does not distinguish cyber threats as a distinct category.

The framework's threat categorization, as outlined in SP 800-30 Table D-2, provides four broad categories: Adversarial, Accidental, Structural, and Environmental. These categories encompass all types of threats without specifically delineating cyber threats from other security threats.

For risk assessment, NIST SP 800-30 states that "Risk assessments are used to identify, estimate, and prioritize risk to organizational operations (i.e., mission, functions, image, and reputation), organizational assets, individuals, other organizations, and the Nation, resulting from the operation and use of information systems." This risk-based approach is further supported by the CSF Core structure, which organizes outcomes into Functions (GOVERN, IDENTIFY, PROTECT, DETECT, RESPOND, and RECOVER) rather than specific threat types.

The analysis reveals several critical limitations in the framework:

What makes this particularly interesting is that the framework still requires organizations to "identify threats" and then "apply controls" without providing specific guidance on what constitutes a cyber threat or which controls map to specific cyber threats. Funny isn't it?

This disconnect between the framework's stated cybersecurity focus and its actual content raises questions about its effectiveness in specifically addressing cyber threats versus general security risks.

A Path Forward: Embracing Structured Threat Categorization

As the cybersecurity community continues to evolve, it's crucial that our frameworks evolve with us. The adoption of a comprehensive threat taxonomy within the NIST CSF could significantly enhance its practical utility in cyber risk management.

One promising approach is the 10 Top Level Cyber Threat Clusters proposed by Barnes [3]. This framework offers a structured, consistent method for categorizing threats that bridges the gap between high-level strategy and operational security.

Barnes' approach addresses many of the shortcomings in the NIST definition by:

The Benefits of a Clear Threat Taxonomy

Integrating a structured threat taxonomy like Barnes' into the NIST CSF could offer several key benefits:

  1. Consistency: A standardized taxonomy ensures that all parts of an organization are speaking the same language when it comes to threats.
  2. Completeness: A well-designed taxonomy helps ensure that no significant threat categories are overlooked.
  3. Clarity: Clear categories make it easier to communicate about threats both within an organization and with external stakeholders.
  4. Actionability: A structured approach to threats makes it easier to link threat categories directly to specific controls and mitigation strategies.
  5. Scalability: A good taxonomy can be applied consistently across different scales, from individual systems to entire enterprises.

Conclusion: Time for Evolution

As we continue to face increasingly sophisticated cyber threats, it's time for our foundational frameworks to adapt. The NIST CSF has served us well, but its approach to threat identification and categorization is due for an upgrade.

By incorporating a structured threat taxonomy, the NIST CSF could provide organizations with a clearer path from threat identification to control implementation, ultimately leading to more robust and effective cybersecurity strategies.

References

  1. National Institute of Standards and Technology, "Framework for Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity, Version 1.1," April 2018.
  2. B. Kreinz, "Top Level Cyber Threat Clusters," Barnes Projects White Paper, September 2024.
  3. R. Anderson, "Security Engineering: A Guide to Building Dependable Distributed Systems," Wiley, 2020.

NIST CSF:

Leveraging NIST functions with Barnes Cyber Threat Clusters

The NIST functions can be used to organize controls and their objectives (e.g., "Prevent Malware Execution", "Detect Malware Execution") within each of the Barnes Cyber Threat Clusters. This combination would provide a comprehensive framework for both threat identification and risk evaluation.

The "Identify" function, enhanced with the Barnes Cyber Threat Clusters, would enable more effective management of both high-level threats and operational sub-threats, ensuring a complete and coherent control framework.

Cyber Threat Cluster Control Framework

Overview

This framework integrates the 10 Top Level Cyber Threat Clusters with the NIST Cybersecurity Functions to provide a comprehensive approach to cybersecurity risk management.

Structure

For each Threat Cluster:

NIST Function
Control Objective
Local Controls
Umbrella Controls
Identify
Identify weaknesses enabling [Threat]
[Specific measures]
[Overarching systems/processes]
Protect
Protect from [Threat] Event
[Specific measures]
[Overarching systems/processes]
Detect
Detect [Threat] Event
[Specific measures]
[Overarching systems/processes]
Respond
Respond to [Threat] Event
[Specific measures]
[Overarching systems/processes]
Recover
Recover from [Threat] Event
[Specific measures]
[Overarching systems/processes]

Example: #2 Exploit Server

Controls are not complete - its a POC here

NIST Function
Control Objective
Local Controls
Umbrella Controls
Identify
Try to identify failures in the code of your Server Software
Fuzzy Testing, Network based Vulscan
Threat Intell this topic, CVE Subscriptions
Protect
Protect Server from being exploited
Patchmanagement, Secure Coding
WAF
Detect
Detect Exploited Server
Local Event Logs
SIEM
Respond
Respond to exploited server
Emergency Patch,
CSIRT, Exploit Server Response Plan (Make WAF Rules)
Recover
Recover Server Exploit Event
Maintain your Repo, Restore
IT SCM

Example: #4 Identity Theft

Controls are not complete - its a POC here

NIST Function
Control Objective
Local Controls
Umbrella Controls
IDENTIFY
Identify weaknesses in identity management
Password policy audits, Penetration testing
Comprehensive Identity and Access Management (IAM) assessment framework
PROTECT
Protect Identity
Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA), Secure credential distribution
Enterprise-wide Identity Governance and Administration (IGA) system
DETECT
Detect Identity Theft
Anomaly detection rules, User behavior monitoring
Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) system
RESPOND
Respond to Identity Theft
Account lockout procedures, Incident response plan activation
Integrated Incident Response Platform
RECOVER
Recover Identity
Identity restoration, Credential reset procedures
Enterprise-wide Business Continuity Management System

While NIST functions provide an excellent structure for organizing controls and their objectives within each Barnes Cyber Threat Cluster, ISO standards can play a complementary role in this framework. Organizations can leverage ISO's comprehensive control sets (such as those in ISO 27002) and risk management methodologies (ISO 27005) to enhance control selection and implementation within the NIST function structure, thereby creating a more robust and internationally aligned approach to addressing each threat cluster.

Application

This framework can be applied to all 10 Top Level Cyber Threat Clusters:

  1. Abuse of functions
  2. Exploiting Server
  3. Exploiting Client
  4. Identity Theft
  5. Man in the middle
  6. Flooding Attack
  7. Malware
  8. Physical Attack
  9. Social Engineering
  10. Supply Chain (Attack)

For each cluster, specific Control Objectives, Local Controls, and Umbrella Controls should be defined according to the unique characteristics and risks associated with that threat type.

Where are the GOV controls?

The GOVERN (GV) function in NIST CSF 2.0 operates at a strategic level, focusing on establishing the overall cybersecurity risk management framework rather than addressing specific threats directly. Unlike functions such as PROTECT or DETECT, which have controls directly linked to mitigating or identifying particular cyber threats, GOVERN controls are "assurance controls" that ensure the organization has a comprehensive approach to cybersecurity. These controls create the structure and context within which other functions operate, including setting risk appetite, defining roles and responsibilities, and establishing policies. While the threat categorization, such as the 10 Top Level Cyber Threat Clusters, is indeed a crucial element in the risk register that GOVERN oversees, the GV controls themselves do not directly counter specific threats. Instead, they provide the strategic foundation that enables the organization to effectively manage and respond to the entire spectrum of cyber risks.

Bridging NIST Application to Strategy and Capabilities: The Essence

After applying the NIST Cybersecurity Framework to our 10 Top Level Cyber Threat Clusters, the crucial next step is aligning organizational capabilities with the required controls and their objectives. This alignment, guided by the GOVERN (GV) function, ensures that your cybersecurity strategy is both comprehensive and executable.

Key Components:

  1. Governance as the Foundation (GOVERN Function):
    • Establish the overarching cybersecurity risk management framework.
    • Define risk appetite and tolerance levels for each of the 10 Top Level Cyber Threat Clusters.
    • Create policies and assign roles and responsibilities to address each threat cluster.
  2. Strategic Alignment:
    • Ensure cybersecurity efforts directly support business objectives.
    • Align control objectives with the organization's risk appetite for each threat cluster.
  3. Control Objectives and Controls:
    • Define specific control objectives for each of the 10 Top Level Cyber Threat Clusters.
    • Identify and implement controls to meet these objectives, leveraging frameworks like NIST CSF.
  4. Capability Alignment:
    • Identify the capabilities required to implement and maintain controls for each threat cluster.
    • Assess current capabilities and identify gaps in addressing the 10 clusters.
    • Develop strategies to build or enhance necessary capabilities, guided by control objectives.

Alignment Process:

  1. For each Threat Cluster:
    1. Define control objectives based on risk appetite and governance policies.
    2. Identify specific controls to meet these objectives.
    3. Determine the capabilities required to implement and maintain these controls.
    4. Assess current capabilities and identify gaps.
    5. Develop plans to build or enhance needed capabilities.
  2. Integrate across Threat Clusters:
    • Identify common capabilities that address multiple threat clusters.
    • Prioritize capability development based on risk levels and resource constraints.
  3. Continuous Alignment:
    • Regularly reassess the alignment of capabilities, controls, and objectives.
    • Adjust as threat landscapes evolve and new vulnerabilities emerge within the clusters.

Example Alignment:

Threat Cluster: #2 Exploiting Server

  1. Control Objective: Minimize vulnerabilities in code of server-side software.
  2. Controls:
    • Implement regular patching schedules
    • Conduct routine vulnerability assessments
    • Deploy Web Application Firewalls (WAF)
  3. Required Capabilities:
    • Patch management processes and tools
    • Vulnerability assessment skills and tools
    • WAF configuration and management expertise

By methodically aligning capabilities with controls and control objectives for each of the 10 Top Level Cyber Threat Clusters, guided by the GOVERN function, organizations create a cohesive and effective cybersecurity strategy. This approach ensures that the organization not only identifies what needs to be done but also develops the necessary competencies to execute and sustain its security efforts across all threat clusters.

PROJECT REFERENCE: Cyber Threat Clusters

EXTERNAL REFERENCE:About NIST CSF

No additional updates are scheduled at this time. last update: concept check with ChatGPT o1-preview 20/10/2024